leapfrogging

I’ve had a few conversations with people about an interesting mode of technology diffusion called “leapfrogging.”  I don’t know that it is an accepted technical term or anything.  and I say “technology diffusion” not because it is a conscious means of rolling out new technology, but simply because that’s how it happens.  “leapfrogging” is the phenomenon where something skips from an old technology, over a middle technological invention, to a more advanced one for the same purpose.

a perfect example is cell phones.  in the development of communication, as a culture, we’ve gone from letters/telegraphs/no long distance audible communication to telephones connected via landlines and then to wireless cell phones.  what’s interesting about this is that in developing areas, for the most part people skipped right over the old telephone/land line model.  they went right from no “phone”-type contact to cell phones in one jump.  there was too much investment in laying land lines throughout far flung and rural and poor areas for it to be profitable or even feasible in many cases.  while there may have been a market as far as desire went, there was no market as far as money went.  what would be the use of having a phone if you were struggling to maintain your home and family adequately?  and particularly, what would be the use if everyone else didn’t have one?  or in a place where most things are within walking distance?  even if someone had the means and desire for a land line telephone, the structure just wasn’t there, nor would anyone be putting it there.  with the widespread use of cell phones, using limited infrastructure (just the towers) and hardware that is so inexpensive it’s almost disposable even in developing areas, there was an instant solution.  many, many people in poor areas have cell phones, and they do not cost as much as you would think.  I could have gotten a Guatemalan cell phone, with minutes to the states, for about $10 while I was there.  sure, that’s a lot for someone who lives on $2 a day, but for someone who makes a little more or for whom contact is a part of their income-generating activities, it is do-able.

another example of leapfrogging can be seen in my post on Shad and his farming techniques and philosophy.  once upon a time, farming was an individual thing, done on a relatively small scale to provide for the family.  even when it was not used simply for feeding the family or immediate community and changed into focusing on growing crops exclusively to sell, it still was very much done by individuals or families.  although the history and my retelling of it is vastly oversimplified here, bear with me.  eventually this relatively small-scale farming gave way to industrialized or commercial farming.  large corporations that harvested large tracts of land and focused on production pushed many small and medium farmers out of the arena.  most people get their food from supermarkets, supplied by these large and specialized producers.  organic and locally-grown fruits and vegetables are pretty much a niche market, though one that is growing.  there is a move for sustainable farming, organic and local farming, CSAs and more grass-roots type of farming.  permaculture is gaining steam, as is producing for your community and making a profit on varied, symbiotic crops.  and this is very much the model people are implementing where they can in developing areas.  farming in some areas has skipped right from personal, individual farming to a sustainable small-scale community food supply, without taking that large infrastructure step in the middle.

then there is light.  in the developed world, we went from kerosene and candles (fire-based) lighting to electrically-supplied light bulbs (again requiring significant infrastructure).  because we have this infrastructure already and it is relatively inexpensive, the transition to more natural sources for lighting power, such as solar or wind energy, has been stunted.  not so in the developing world, where once again there is a very clear leapfrog happening.  as i will discuss in the future, kerosene and other fire-based lighting (and cooking!) are dangerous, bad for people’s health, and actually relatively expensive.  solar lighting systems, though requiring an up-front investment, are subsequently free to use, do not require infrastructure, are available on an individual basis, are safer, do not produce harmful emissions, and can even be used to charge the ubiquitous cell phones.  many NGOs and companies are working on or already providing solar lighting to poor people around the world.  similarly, power in general has followed much the same route.  mechanical-based power such as human or animal labor gave way to fossil-fuel energy (electricity, gas, gasoline) which will hopefully give way to more natural sources of energy such as solar.  this is already happening in developing areas (though certainly the use of fossil fuels is also widespread).

how many other examples of leapfrogging can be found?  computers/internet which have gone from hard lines to modems to wifi (or even internet access through phones that skipped computers altogether)?  health care, where we’ve moved from the model of a local town-based doctor to large regional hospitals and specialists?  in impoverished areas, teams are working on portable high tech diagnostic tools that connect a local doctor to specialists in urban areas.  perhaps this is another leapfrog beginning to happen.  environmental solutions?  waste treatment?  vehicle power alternatives?

certainly, there are limitations to this.  in a future post:  the case against leapfrogging.